When you have your orders sequenced it can become quite easy to see when customers start becoming loyal. Many stores I've looked at have a point where their metrics start improving like the 4th order or 2nd order.
Average Order Value.
Repeat Purchase Rate.
Customer Purchase Latency.
They all tend to improve at once around this time. That's where you've proven to your customers that you're a great store to shop at and they become comfortable shopping with you.
Your goal is to get new customers to that point. Until then, you're unproven in their eyes.
Repeat Customer Insights will automatically analyze your data like this in the Order Sequencing Report.
Eric Davis
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Check how holiday customers performed in prior years with Repeat Customer Insights Cohort Report.